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Forum:2012 Pacific typhoon season
Future start Far from beginning, but I think we will have a pretty near-normal PTS this year, 23-27 storms, 12-16 typhoons, 5-9 major typhoons and 2 category 5 storms. Ryan1000 ''01:11, July 10, 2011 (UTC) First PTS betting pool is open. Betting Pools . 10L. 23:55, August 29, 2011 (UTC) August 12W.HAIKUI 99W.INVEST TCFA.--Cyclone10 03:04, August 2, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Depression 12W Now 12W.--Cyclone10 21:19, August 2, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Storm Haikui Hello Haikui.Cyclone10 03:07, August 3, 2012 (UTC) Eww JTWC. Hey Haikui of the Danelia family, welcome to the world :P atomic7732 Welcome back, Atomic. And hello Haikui. Likely will head for China, but then recurve towards Japan/South Korea at the last minute. ''Ryan1000 14:35, August 3, 2012 (UTC) Haikui's making landfall in 5 days :| Cyclone10 20:58, August 4, 2012 (UTC) Typhoon Haikui Expected to recurve while inland.--Cyclone10 16:04, August 6, 2012 (UTC) : 200,000 people are evacuated in Shanghai.Cyclone10 18:54, August 7, 2012 (UTC) ::: Flooding is a huge concern with this storm. It's been stalling over China for days, and the results probrably won't look good. Ryan1000 18:05, August 8, 2012 (UTC) Remnants of Haikui It's gone now. Tons of damage in Philippines.--Cyclone10 21:03, August 9, 2012 (UTC) 13W.KIROGI 90W.INVEST Subtropical and heading eastward.--Cyclone10 19:05, August 4, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Depression 13W Another fish.--Cyclone10 20:54, August 4, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Storm 13W JMA has issued the last advisory :O Cyclone10 03:57, August 6, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Storm Kirogi Has been named by JMA and JTWC. No strengthening is forecast as it will move over colder water. 17:26, August 8, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Depression Kirogi Weakening.Cyclone10 04:10, August 9, 2012 (UTC) Remnants of Kirogi Gone.Cyclone10 03:08, August 11, 2012 (UTC) 92W.INVEST I think this is what's left of 91C. TCFA and heading northeastward.... Cyclone10 15:42, August 10, 2012 (UTC) : Back to CPHC's responsibility.Cyclone10 02:52, August 11, 2012 (UTC) 14W.KAI-TAK A new invest.--Cyclone10 03:07, August 11, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Depression 14W (Helen) New depression, PAGASA have already named it Helen. They take it between the Philippines and Taiwan —''12R. '' 13:43, August 12, 2012 (UTC) Likely to head towards Taiwan and China as a tropical storm or typhoon over the next few days. Ryan1000 18:18, August 12, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Storm Kai-tak Hi Kai-tak. —''12R. '' 02:12, August 13, 2012 (UTC) Looks like Kai-Tak may pull a Saola. Simlover123 (talk) 03:03, August 13, 2012 (UTC) I take this on a westward track, towards Hong Kong (where it might hit the site of Kai-Tak Airport). But it will likely recurve towards Taiwan. AndrewTalk To Me 04:05, August 13, 2012 (UTC) :: I have Kai-tak making landfall in China, and dissipate inland.Isaac829 13:07, August 13, 2012 (UTC) JTWC's forecast track of of 13/1500z is too far west. A close approach is likely to Taiwan is likely, then a landfall on China —''12R. '' 17:24, August 13, 2012 (UTC) : Kai-tak is still moving westward. JTWC predicts a landfall near Hong Kong :| Isaac829 16:07, August 14, 2012 (UTC) ::: Kai-tak has made its first landfall.Isaac829 00:56, August 15, 2012 (UTC) ::::Kai-tak has also made its first ever return over the open ocean waters. —''12R. '' 14:54, August 15, 2012 (UTC) Typhoon Kai-tak Nice eye feature, and still a STS for JMA.--Isaac829 00:35, August 17, 2012 (UTC) Remnants of Kai-tak Long gone.--Isaac829 22:18, August 23, 2012 (UTC) 95W.INVEST New invest.Isaac829 16:07, August 14, 2012 (UTC) : Gone.Isaac829 22:47, August 18, 2012 (UTC) 15W.TEMBIN 96W.INVEST Looks great for an invest.Isaac829 22:47, August 18, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Storm Tembin Now a TS.--Isaac829 15:17, August 19, 2012 (UTC) May become a problem for Taiwan. Simlover123 (talk) 18:03, August 19, 2012 (UTC) : Saola already was.Isaac829 18:11, August 19, 2012 (UTC) System looking sexy at the moment. ATCF ups it to 60 kt, but I wouldn't be too surprised if it actually was a typhoon. —''12R. '' 19:12, August 19, 2012 (UTC) Typhoon Tembin Even by JTWC standards, Tembin is a typhoon (and named Igme). AndrewTalk To Me 03:20, August 20, 2012 (UTC) Will probably be a cat 4 or 5 at landfall.Allanjeffs 03:49, August 20, 2012 (UTC) Currently at 110 kt, with a peak expected near 125 kt. Should be a biggiee. —''12R. '' 14:36, August 20, 2012 (UTC) :: Yep. RIing right now.Isaac829 21:53, August 20, 2012 (UTC) :::Now at 115 kt and expected to peak as a marginal super typhoon like Guchol did. --HurricaneMaker99 23:21, August 20, 2012 (UTC) ::::Forecast to go in a loop after make landfall and reemerging out to sea.--Isaac829 03:17, August 23, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Storm Tembin (2nd time) Might become a typhoon again.--Isaac829 15:38, August 24, 2012 (UTC) Typhoon Tembin (2nd time) Yep.Isaac829 21:29, August 25, 2012 (UTC) 16W.BOLAVEN 97W.INVEST Not as good.Isaac829 22:47, August 18, 2012 (UTC) :Lies. TCFA issued, probably a TD by 03/09z. —''12R. '' 15:53, August 19, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Depression 16W Should be a strong typhoon in a couple of days.--Isaac829 03:51, August 20, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Storm Bolaven Named now... so lets have a party —''12R. '' 14:38, August 20, 2012 (UTC) Typhoon Bolaven RI coming soon....Isaac829 14:50, August 21, 2012 (UTC) This storm really scares me. I have a bad feeling this storm could mirror Typhoon Saomai of 2006 and crush China as a monstrous super typhoon. They better keep their eyes out. This is not looking good. Ryan1000 00:21, August 22, 2012 (UTC) Ryan, most signs point to a China/North Korea landfall.Isaac829 03:29, August 23, 2012 (UTC) Still not looking good. Initially it looked like it would follow Saomai, but either way, 2 majors in WPac aren't anything to be taken lightly. This could cause lot's of damage to Okinawa or the surrounding islands. Even if it does make it all the way to North Korea, by then it would only be a tropical storm. Ryan1000 20:03, August 23, 2012 (UTC) :Err...JTWC now has Bolaven making landfall in North Korea at typhoon strength.--Isaac829 15:51, August 24, 2012 (UTC) :::GFS sees it hitting China as a strong storm, possibly a C2/C3. Ryan1000 16:18, August 24, 2012 (UTC) Now up to 130 kt, some more strengthening is possible. —''12R. '' 20:11, August 24, 2012 (UTC) : Bolaven has 3 eyewalls....Isaac829 22:06, August 25, 2012 (UTC) : ...and a very low pressure of 910 mb.Isaac829 02:21, August 26, 2012 (UTC) 98W.INVEST ...Isaac829 22:47, August 18, 2012 (UTC) Gone.Isaac829 22:46, August 22, 2012 (UTC) 99W.INVEST TD according to JMA.Isaac829 22:18, August 23, 2012 (UTC) : Gone (or de-invested).Isaac829 03:08, August 25, 2012 (UTC) 90W.INVEST A new invest.--Isaac829 01:11, August 27, 2012 (UTC) Retirements at a glance Here's my predictions: *Pakhar - 10% - Not too much damage, or not enough deaths. *Sanvu - 0% - Never touched any landmass. *Mawar - <10% - Not so much damage created. **Ambo - 5% - Probably not. *Guchol - 35% - 27 deaths and evacs, but Talas didn't retired last year, so this shouldn't either. **Butchoy - 0% - Didn't/barely affect(ed) the Philippines. *Talim - 15% - Only some crops. **Carina - 0% - No. *Doksuri - 40% - Not that much. **Dindo - 30% - Not sure that's enough to make the name retire. *Khanun - 50% - Lots of damage in DPRK. **Enteng - 0% - No effects. *Vicente - 45% - Less damage than I thought. **Ferdie - 30% - Wasn't that bad. *Saola - 60% - Quite some damage. **Gener - 20% - Maybe. *Damrey - 45% - See Vicente. *Haikui - 80% - Lots of damage in the Philippines, yet so far away. And the damage in China. *Kirogi - 0% - No impacts at all. *Kai-tak - 30% - Not bad. **Helen - 20% - Haikui was worse. *Tembin - ? **Igme - ? *Bolaven - ? **Julian - 0% - Nah. Isaac829 18:56, August 25, 2012 (UTC) : Little too soon, don't you think? Pakhar may cause severe flooding in Vietnam in the future, but I think i'll wait until later to post my predictions. Ryan1000 13:28, March 29, 2012 (UTC) Mine: JMA: #Pakhar - 5% - Not that extreme. #Sanvu - 0% - No. #Mawar - 1% - I doubt it. #Guchol - 5% - Yes, there were some effects, but not that bad. #Talim - 10% - Another possible one, but not that likely. #Doksuri - 25% - More damaging then Talim, so it has a possible chance. #Khanun - 70% - South Korea might consider this damaging, and it is. #Vincente - 40% - A scare for Hong Kong, but it could've been much worse. #Soala - 30% - Hit me in China, but outshadowed by Damrey and Haikui. #Damrey - 45% - Also hit me, but Haikui has a better chance of going. #Haikui - 90% - Damaged my relative's houses, combined with its other damage, yes. #Kirogi - 0% - See Sanvu's section. #Kai-tak - 10% - Maybe not. #Tembin - TBA - Still Active. #Bolaven - TBA - Still Active PAGASA: #Ambo - 2% - Some effects, but the Philippines has seen much worse. #Butchoy - 0% - Had no effects. #Carina - 0% - No Cosme here. #Dindo - 4% - I still doubt Dindo will go. #Enteng - 0% - Had no Philippine effects. #Ferdie - 2% - Minor Philippine effects. #Gener - 1% - Some moderate effects in the Philippines. #Helen - 30% - Not that damaging. #Igme - TBA - Still Active --AndrewTalk To Me 15:16, March 31, 2012 (UTC) : Are you sure about giving 3% to Khanun?Isaac829 16:09, August 14, 2012 (UTC) Here's mine: JMA: *Pakhar - 1% - Very little chance. *Sanvu - 0% - No. *Mawar - 0% - No chance. *Guchol - 20% - Has small chances of retirement. *Talim - 0% - I doubt it. *Doksuri - 5% - I don't think so. *Khanun - 60% - Lots of damage and deaths in DPRK, maybe a candidate for retirement. I didn't expect that to happen though. *Vicente - 50% - Wow, shocked me a lot when intensified to a Category 4, but has less damage. Though damage is considerably light as of now, China or Hong Kong may request Vicente to be retired. So it's a 50/50 for me. *Saola - 35% - Moderate damage in Taiwan and the Philippines, so there is a very slim chance that Saola may be retired. *Damrey - 10% - I don't think so. *Haikui - 85% - Philippines: severely affected; China: also affected; so, there's a very big chance of retirement for Haikui. *Kirogi - 0% - No land areas affected. *Kai-tak - ? - Still active. PAGASA: *Ambo - 0% - No. *Butchoy - 0% - I really doubt it. *Carina - 0% - No damage in the Philippines. A fish. *Dindo - 0% - I don't think so, another fish. *Enteng - 0% - Barely affected the Philippines. *Ferdie - 0% - Not that much damage. *Gener - 30% - Maybe? But damages and deaths were not as high as compared to the previous storms that affected the islands. *Helen - 80% - P500 million damages so far, may exceed P1 billion, which is enought to retire 'Helen'. - Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:06, August 16, 2012 (UTC) Well, now that we have quite a few storms, here's mine: JMA names: *Pakhar - 5% - Nothing too severe. *Sanvu - 0% - Not a chance. *Mawar - 0% - As with Sanvu. *Guchol - 10% - I won't say it did nothing, but if Talas wasn't retired last year for 73 deaths and 600 million in damage, Guchol doesn't stand a chance. *Talim - 0% - Nah. *Doksuri - 1% - Won't say it was a complete fish, but still no retirement here. *Khanun - 65% - Pretty bad, but not too sure...Korea's seen worse. *Vicente - 55% - It was destructive and it has a shot of retirement, but the thing that shocks me most about Vicente is how much worse it could've been. This was probrably the closest call China has seen in a long time. *Saola - 25% - Caused some flooding in Taiwan, but not extremely bad. *Damrey - 10% - This ended up being interesting for China, but at least it missed Shanghai and overall damage wasn't too severe. *Haikui - 85% - Another storm for China, and by golly, what a storm. I never knew it was this bad. This thing sat over China for several days, and although only 19 or so people died, 2 billion dollars in damage isn't anything to laugh at. This thing has a serious chance of retirement, and also the only storm named Haikui, having replaced 2005's Longwang. *Kirogi - 0% - What's that now? *Kai-Tak - 35% - Something reasonable, but nothing severe. *Tembin - ?? - To be announced. *Bolaven - ?? - Nothing yet, but like Isaac in the Atlantic, I have an ominous feeling... PAGASA names: *Ambo - 1% - Not very likely to happen. *Butchoy - 0% - Hardly any damage in the Philippines. *Carina -No damage to the islands. *Dindo - See Carina. *Enteng - Not a chance. *Ferdie - 5% - Not as bad as other storms. *Gener - 10% - As with Ferdie. *Helen - 30% - Something, but not devastating. *Igme - ?? - TBA. Impressive season thus far, but not as bad as it could've been, especially with Vicente. The Philippines were much luckier than last year, that's for sure. Ryan1000 02:44, August 13, 2012 (UTC) :Ryan, are you sure about 0% for Khanun? It worsened a nasty flooding situation in North Korea that has killed at least 169 people. http://www.bnonews.com/inbox/?id=1007 --HurricaneMaker99 19:17, August 13, 2012 (UTC) ::Ryan, are you really sure about what you gave to Khanun? - Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:12, August 16, 2012 (UTC) :::Sorry, I was looking at a completely different storm. Couldn't say no to that, but not 100%. Ryan1000 00:24, August 22, 2012 (UTC)